Why Milk will win Best Picture (I hope!)

At long last, I’ve finally gotten into the action on InTrade. This “predictions market” put the “efficient markets hypothesis” (the theory that, at any given time, the price of a stock or commodity reflects all available information) to the test.

Like the stock market, InTrade essentially provides its users with a platform for betting on a predicted outcome. After an initial public offering, “stocks” of an outcome trade up or down, based on public demand.

Every share sells for its market-determined value (which, historically, tends to be a darn good proxy for its actual probably outcome). After the event, the value of a share goes to $10 if the expected event (ex: Barack Obama becomes the 44th President of the United States) is fulfilled, or $0 if it is not.

Yesterday, I bought 100 shares of Milk to win the 2009 Academy Award for Best Picture.” I set a market limit order at 49 cents, which was quickly filled. If Milk loses to Slumdog Millionaire (as it likely will), I’m out $50. If Milk wins, I’m up $950.

Here’s my case for Milk winning, in the form of a numbered list:

1. Milk is a better movie than Slumdog Millionaire.
2. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences likes Gus Van Sant better than Danny Boyle. I can’t prove this one, but: Van Sant is a long-standing and visible member of the Hollywood establishment; Danny Boyle’s is some young punk kid whose last big film was 28 Days Later. (Don’t get me wrong–I like Danny Boyle better than Gus Van Sant, but…)
3. Milk is about gay rights–in a year when gay rights is in the front of everyone’s minds (with the success of Prop-8, that is. The Academy would probably give the award to Milk, just to spite the Church of Jesus Christ of Later Day Homophobic Saints).
4. The children actors in Slumdog Millionaire, though picked from the slums, were grossly underpaid and quickly returned to the slums from whence they came, when the filming was over. (See: this article.)
5. The Academy has long succumbed to the inherent pleasure and persuasiveness of numbered lists!

So. Maybe Milk will win. At 20:1, I feel like it’s a solid bet. And, after all, my portfolio could use a little luck, after my ill-advised bet on Citigroup (NYSE: C) eight weeks ago.

May the best film (that conforms to the political agenda of the Academy) win!