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Good heavens. Microsoft Excel is profoundly worthless for trying to do any sort of statistical analysis other than the most painfully rudimentary.

And, for that matter, Excel is really profoundly worthless for most of its intended functions. As a basic spreadsheet cruncher, it’s semi-functional, but it produces painfully ugly graphs which, at least as of Excel 2003, are painfully cumbersome on manipulate in to graphs that don’t look downright awful.

So… for any sort of professional use, Excel really fails. Fails.

I guess its time to learn how to use a more sophisticated statistical analysis program, like Stata. Ug… though. Really? Why can’t there be a simple but full-featured spreadsheet application that not only can do simple spreadsheet tasks but also has a full-featured function set that can be used for slightly more sophisticated tasks?

For example: I have a list of ~5000 songs. In one column, I have the length of the song. In the next, I have the number of times each song has been played. I would like to be able to create a bar graph of weighted average, in 30 second intervals, each song has been played. But … I haven’t been able to figure it out, short of writing a bunch (40+) of functions by hand… ar!

Ah! So, here I am, working on another blog post (coming soon?), lying on my stomach in the living room, as I do, (sipping on bottle of Santa Rita 120 Cabernet Sauvignon 2007 – fruity, full body, but with a flat bouquet and a harsh, gritty finish. Good, but doesn’t seem to deserve the W&S score of 89.) … and all of the sudden I see something out of the corner of my eye…

“My God!” I say, “it’s a mouse!”

Sure enough, some audacious, furry creature just ran across the living room toward the kitchen.

Frankly, I’m for it! Huzzah! A pet! As long as he (or she!) doesn’t start eating my Annie’s Macaroni and Cheese, stored in my pantry. Then, it’s war. WAR, you hear!

Last night was the third and final presidential debate. From the Huffington Post:

The results over at CBS show Obama to have scored the biggest victory to date: “Fifty-three percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed identified Democratic nominee Barack Obama as the winner of tonight’s debate. Twenty-two percent said Republican rival John McCain won. Twenty-four percent saw the debate as a draw.”

It is, the site writes, “a clean sweep” for the Illinois Democrat.

Over at CNN, a separate poll of several hundred debate watchers again favored the Democrat by large margins: 58 percent for Obama to McCain’s 31 percent. Perhaps more importantly, McCain’s favorable rating dropped 51 to 49 while his unfavorable rating increased from 45 percent to 49 percent. Obama ended up with 66 percent favorable rating.

Digging into the details the news is even worse for the Arizona Republican.

Asked who “expressed his views more clearly” 66 percent said Obama, 25 percent said McCain.
“Who spent their time attacking his opponent:” 80 percent said McCain, seven percent said Obama. “Who seemed to be the stronger leader:” 56 percent for Obama, 39 percent for McCain. And who was “more likeable:” 70 percent for Obama to McCain’s 22 percent.

Clean sweep, for Obama. McCain was out of control … clearly nervous … grasping for anything that he could “beat” Obama at. Obama was at his best: clear, articulate, and above the muck and mire of John McCain’s petty attacks. It was inspiring to watch Senator Obama consistently take the high road during last night’s debate, even when clearly presented with the opportunity not to (especially when asked if he thought Sarah Palin was ready to be President, to which he responded, “we’ll let the American people decide that.”)

Obama FTW.

As I write, it’s 34 degrees F outside, and snowing. Snowing!

In any case, it’s COLD outside.

My rental unit came with a natural gas fireplace. When we rented the unit, I asked the landlord if the fireplace worked, since many rental units simply have their fireplaces disabled. She thought it did, and I was excited!

Well, move in day came and went … and I got (darn you, Mrs. Brabson!) around to trying the fireplace.

Perhaps not surprisingly–given the condition of the unit as a whole–it didn’t work.

I talked to the rental company about it, and they suggested that I talk to NorthWestern Energy about it.

Well, wait. Back up.

First, I talked to the rental company, and when the repair guy finally came out, he fidgeted around with the fireplace, asked me for a paperclip, made a few phone calls, and finally told me that he didn’t know.

Well, then I talked to the rental company again and they referred me.

The NorthWestern guy came out (actually, he stopped by on his own … to see why we hadn’t used any gas in the last three months) and got the pilot light going. Then, he looked at the electrical components inside the fireplace, started to ask me a question, and then stopped, saying, “no. I better not. We legally can’t jump this.” He suggested that I contact the rental company back.

So, I did. This time, my landlady remembered that the fireplace had broken a while back, and the owner had decided that he didn’t want to pay to have the fireplace fixed. “So,” she told me, “if you want it fixed, it’s on your own dime.”

Well, fair enough.

Well … tonight it’s cold outside! Today’s high was something like 38 degrees F!

And so, being through with my homework, I decided to mess around with the fireplace. I’m a mechanically inclined guy, ya know?

So I put two and two together. I fiddled around with the wires, to no avail, and then I thought to myself:

“We’re not legally allowed to jump it. “

Probably to check to see if one of the thermostats had stopped working. Hmm!

Fiddling around with my paperclip, suddenly I heard “Tick. … Fhoop! … Fhoop!” as the fireplace “fired” up, back row, then front row.

A little more meddling, and I figured out that there was a wire that I could connect a black wire to another screw, and then, “Tick! Fhoop! Fhoop!”

And so, now, I’m sitting by a warm, roaring fire, writing this post.

Now, for a little economics:

1) I’m aware that there’s probably a reason why there’s a thermostat. There’s probably some sort of safety feature that I’m circumventing by “jumping” my fireplace.

2) The batteries in my fire-alarm are fresh.

3) The owner’s attitude is, “I don’t care. Extract as much money from the house as possible. I’m not going to pay to keep it up.” (This attitude has come up in other areas, like fixing the broken shades on the windows.)

An economist might say, by refusing the keep up the house, the owner has failed to create the proper incentives for its renters to keep up the place. S/he doesn’t care, why should we?

Here we have a classic example of moral hazard (see: the federal financial bail-out plan). The owner has failed to create the proper incentives for me, a renter, to avoid risky behavior.

And so: when we want to run the fireplace, we jump it. To turn it off, we simply pull out the wire. And oh, it’s warm and cozy!

Heh. I’ve thought, recently, about getting a pet, but … I don’t think I’m quite ready for the level of responsibility.

Case in point: I just went outside, and when I came back in I noticed Bovard’s two cacti, sitting by the back door. They both were looking rather wilted and sad. I realized that they probably hadn’t been watered since I last watered them … about six weeks ago.

So. In a house where the only plant that can reasonably survive is a cactus–and where that survival is marginal at best … I’m probably not ready to have a pet. Unless it’s the kind of pet that you can ignore for weeks at a time without repercussions.

Hmm. Maybe I’ll call the animal shelter and see if they have any pet rocks available for adoption…

From the Montana Standard:

It appears that Republican operatives looked to gain an advantage by purging as many voters as possible from counties that lean Democrat. The director of the Republican Party issued a blanket challenge to validly registered voters based on false criteria, trying to persuade election clerks that a mere change of mailing address is grounds for automatic cancellation of voter registration.

Not only was the effort blatantly deceptive, but the Republicans based their challenge on a national change-of-address database from an out-of-state vendor who sells personal information. Among other problems, this database lists servicemen and women who have been deployed overseas as having moved out of Montana. In other words, if you go to Iraq, or Afghanistan, or Fort Sill, Okla., to report for active duty, you have “moved out of the state” according to this list.

A significant number of the 6,000 voters targeted were servicemen, including Kevin Furey, a former state legislator from Missoula who left the legislature to serve in Iraq; Cindie Kalan-Green, who is also serving in Iraq; and Mathew Robison, who I am told has been deployed to Fort Drum.

Many were college students and elderly people. For example, Babe Aspholm, of Anaconda, an elderly man, simply moved across town from his house to a senior living center. The Republicans tried to void his registration. Tom Detonacour, a policeman from Deer Lodge County who simply bought a house in another county, also got targeted.

But worst of all is the legendary Frank St. Pierre, 86, also of Anaconda, who helped save thousands of allied troops at Dunkirk in World War II and has 10 Medals of Honor. St. Pierre, too, moved from one end of town to the other, and the Republicans tried to void his and his wife’s registrations. I have a copy of the signed affidavits from the Republicans, declaring that Frank and Marilyn St. Pierre’s voter registrations must be purged. An utter disgrace.

Beyond the outrageous lack of consideration for citizens, patriots and heroes, a significant burden and cost has been placed on county election administrators, public servants who work hard to ensure the integrity of our elections. They have been completely swamped by this scheme.

Read the whole article at: http://www.mtstandard.com/articles/2008/10/05/opinion/hjjbijjejjigfj.txt

This seems like an entirely desperate move on the part of the Republican party. On balance, I suspect that people are very protective of their right to vote–something that’s been hard-won through the years for ALL Americans (or, at least those over 18 years old who haven’t committed a felony). I can only hope that, as in the case of the Montana Standard author, this tactic backfires so spectacularly that this sort of tactic is never tried again.

If there’s an art to motorcycle maintenance, I’m Jackson Pollock.

Truth be told, I’ve drawn plenty of insights from Robert Pirsig’s “chautauqua”. (Who used to be a professor at MSU, by the by…) Ironically, his meditations on motorcycle maintenance … alluded to significantly in the title Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance have proved absolutely worthless. One wonders if Pirsig ever owned a motorcycle … or a motorcycle repair book. Where were the helpful tips like, “before embarking on a long journey, a journey of thousands of miles … and self discovery? … remember to check your oil. You will not travel far on the road to self-discovery without oil.”

Well, that was last summer. Just in the last few weeks, I’ve actually managed to get the beast up and running again … but it turns out that I’m a pretty awful (or “abstract”, if you prefer) mechanic.

Turns out the order of operations matters in subjects other than math. Let’s see … Mike Shappell taught me to PEMDAS: Please Excuse My Dear Aunt Sally. Or, in non-mnemonic form: parentheses, exponents, multiplication, division, addition, subtraction.

But for all that Shappell taught me … he forget to tell me to be “PC”: Push-rod-cover before Cylinder-head.

Which is to say: when I was putting my cylinder head back together last summer, I messed up my order of operations, and put the cylinder head back together before installing the push-rod cover. Since the cover was plastic, I somehow managed to get it in place after the fact. Unfortunately, it didn’t quite seal… and during the two weeks or so that it’s been running since, there’s been a flood of oil coming out of the cylinder head.

So that’s what I spend my afternoon doing: pulling the whole freaking cylinder head off again, so I can replace the seals and put it back together again properly. So that I can sell the darn thing…

—

This morning, though, I spent in Helena. I emailed my professors a couple days ago, telling that I’d miss class today. But Outlook Express didn’t understand the word “GMAT”. It suggested that I meant “goat”, instead.

So … I took the goat this morning. I drove to Helena last night and got a cheap hotel room with the hope of getting a good night’s sleep before the exam. Well, so much for that: I was up ’till 2:30 am studying, and up again at 6:30 am. Ug.

Speaking of math… Good lord. I didn’t score as well as I had hoped. But I suspect I scored well enough to pursue my new found grad school ambitions.

—

In other news:

The Montana Republican Party is actively trying to suppress the vote, targeting counties with large Indian, student, and low-income populations. … The Montana Republican Party is challenging the voter registrations of 6,000 Montanans. Over half of those challenges have come in Missoula County, where many, many students live. Other challenges have targeted Glacier and Hill Counties, both Reservation counties. And now, the Republican Party is pledging to challenge even more voters despite overwhelming evidence that their initial challenges impacted many eligible voters!

Read more at: ForwardMontana.org

Good work, Republicans*. Perhaps when you’re finished nationalizing (see: socializing!) the nation’s financial institutions, you can get back to your favorite shenanigans of denying Americans their right to vote. It’ll be just like the 1960’s Jim Crow South, all over again!

* – Actually, the democrats deserve a hearty portion of blame for this one, too. … John McCain is so PROUD of his work, rallying the Republicans to support an utterly ludicrous bail out bill.

Two-hundred and fifty dollars to take the GMAT? Good heavens! … I guess I better do it right the first time.

And … for some reason, MSU doesn’t offer the GMAT at its testing center. That doesn’t make sense. Doesn’t MSU pride itself on having a fantastic business school? Why, then, in heaven’s name, doesn’t it offer the GMAT? Is the business school really so good that business students don’t NEED to go to graduate school? Or is it so bad that there would be no point in an MSU business student ever taking the GMAT?

But … sheesh. I thought $140 for the GRE was bad.

In other news…

I’ve started doing my physical therapy exercise at home–going to physical therapy was starting to get really … repetitive.

In any case, one of the (core strengthening) exercises that I do involves getting on my hands and knees, clenching my gut, and extending opposite arm and leg.

Me, being the coordinated guy I am, though … sometimes, when I start doing the exercise, I try to raise and extend the same arm and leg. There’s always a brief moment of confusion–“wait … there’s something WRONG here”–before I realize what I’m doing. (If you don’t understand, visualize me trying to do this.)

Did anyone else find a little ironic John McCain’s insistence during Friday’s presidential debate that he “never won the Miss Congeniality award in the senate” when, of course, his running mate actually did win “Miss Congeniality” in the Miss Alaska pageant?

Also: during the debate, McCain said that a nuclear Iran poses an “existential threat” to the State of Israel.

I’ve been thinking about this for a while, now, and … to be honest, I’ve no idea what the man was talking about.

Certainly, the State of Israel has good cause for some existential questions: Why does Israel exist? … Where did it come from? … When will it finally be recognized as a terrorist state by the United States? (Er… that last question is an important question, but perhaps not an existential question.) Perhaps Israel should ask itself some questions: “Why am I here?” “What’s the meaning of my existence?” “Is life, like my borders, completely arbitrary and without rational justification?”

Certainly, these are questions that commentators and scholars have been asking for half a century now … questions still to be resolved … questions deeply troubling … cause for angst, if not existential angst …

My best guess, though, is simply that: McCain’s grasp of the English language is just a little tenuous. (Rather like his mentor George W Bush … who might actually be an intelligent man, but misuses words with the embarrassing regularity of a pretentious imbecile. Would it be too much to ask to have a leader who is fluent in … at least one language?)

When saying that Iran poses an “existential threat” to Israel, McCain probably meant that Iran threatens the existence of Israel. An existence-tial threat, as it were. Oh, ha ha, John McCain! You’re such a wordsmith!

Well, if McCain doesn’t know what existentialism is, it’s no wonder: he’s never been the sharpest crayon in the box. Oh, not by a long shot.

In fact, McCain graduated 884th in his Naval Academy class of 899 students.

That’s not the top 5% of his class … nope. Not even close.

That’s not even the bottom 5% of his class … or the bottom 2% of his class. That’s the bottom of the bottom 1% of his class.

Ouch.

Certainly, I don’t insist that every presidential candidate graduate magna cum laude from Havard, but I would hope the republican party could come up with a candidate who, say, graduated in the upper half of his class? Maybe just someone … average? No smarter–but no dumber–than the rest of us?

Oh, wait! Average! Like … Sarah Palin! Who took six years to attend five small colleges to graduate with a four-year dead-end degree in “communications-journalism” from the University of Idaho. How’s that for average? You can bet she didn’t graduate cum laude…

Maybe that’s average qualifications for a sportscaster. … But it makes me cringe to think that the people I spend the most time hanging out with are more educated than McCain’s VP pick. (!!)

Despite her sportscaster experience, Sarah Palin has poor posture. Poor posture!

Simply put: as Average-Joes go, McCain and Palin are, at best, pretty average joes. As a presidential hopefuls? They’re losers–abjectly and, we can only hope, in the fullest sense of the word.

Good lord.

Okay … one more: the McCain campaign originally listed Alaska’s proximity to Russia as part of Palin’s foreign relations experience. And somehow it’s stuck.

But what’s funny is that Republicans keep repeating this little factoid … in all seriousness. And Democrats keep repeating this little factoid with grimacing smiles. I guess what’s funny is that the Republicans who keep spouting this fact don’t really get it that they’re being made fun of. Even Sarah Palin doesn’t seem to get it. See below:

COURIC: You’ve cited Alaska’s proximity to Russia as part of your foreign policy experience. What did you mean by that?

PALIN: That Alaska has a very narrow maritime border between a foreign country, Russia, and on our other side, the land– boundary that we have with– Canada. It– it’s funny that a comment like that was– kind of made to– cari– I don’t know, you know? Reporters–

COURIC: Mock?

PALIN: Yeah, mocked, I guess that’s the word, yeah.

COURIC: Explain to me why that enhances your foreign policy credentials.

PALIN: Well, it certainly does because our– our next door neighbors are foreign countries. They’re in the state that I am the executive of. And there in Russia–

COURIC: Have you ever been involved with any negotiations, for example, with the Russians?

PALIN: We have trade missions back and forth. We– we do– it’s very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where– where do they go? It’s Alaska. It’s just right over the border. It is– from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there. They are right next to– to our state.

There ya have it.

It took a few days for last week’s cortisone shot to kick in (a rather cool procedure … they put you on a slab and run a live x-ray machine to help the doctor guide the needle in to the correct place in your spine … if you’re not feint of heart, you can watch it happen), but it’s safe to say it has.

Strangely, I’m beginning to feel like a normal human being again.

In fact, I’ve even managed to SIT through a few of my classes, this last week. That doesn’t seem like much of an accomplishment, admittedly, but…

Thank you to my generous classmates who, over the last few weeks, have kindheartedly said things like, “ya know, there are these things called chairs…”

Yesterday morning held the wonders and fun of two exams. My afternoon was free, however, so Christina and I headed up to Palisade Falls (up Hyalite Canyon). The leaves are turning–I suspect we’re in for a beautiful fall–and the canyon was particularly pretty. We saw some awesome (textbook perfect) debris flows that had crashed over and covered up our paved, handicapped accessible trail…

Cortisone, of course, is a steroid–which explains why I’m up at 8:00 am on a Saturday, randomly spewing out the drivel that’s on my brain.

In other, related news: after hacking and coughing up sputum out of my lungs for the last six weeks, I finally (at the recommendation of my roommate) went to the doctor. Looks like I have bronchitis … *again*. Anyway, the doc’ put me on some antibiotics and, just three days later, I’m already feeling immeasurably better.

Right-o. Well, I think it’s about time for me to whip up a batch of tasty “Australian Pancakes” (probably a misnomer, but tasty nonetheless) for breakfast. Here! I’ll post the recipe*!